Fashion and beauty will be key this Black Friday, reports say

The Black Friday predictions and data around what consumers are buying (so far) are all coming thick and fast at the moment and the general view is that while the shine isn’t quite coming off the shopping event, explosive growth isn’t expected but fashion and beauty should do well.

First a PwC UK prediction that says UK consumers are set to spend £6.4 billion this Black Friday, up only 1.5% (so lower than the inflation rate). That figure is also some way off the record £7.9 billion spent in 2019, with overall spend not having fully recovered since the pandemic. Yet it’s still a substantial sum.

Interest in Black Friday has actually fallen to 46% from 53% of shoppers last year, although those participating will spend £262 per head, which is a healthy 13% more than in 2024. In fact, men are set to increase their spending in even higher double digits and will spend a lot more than women.

But physical retailers may not be happy as four out of every five pounds will be spent online, either for home delivery or click & collect, even though younger shoppers are more likely to physically spend on the high street.

PWC also said the product categories people will be interested in are technology (48%), fashion (38%), Christmas stocking fillers (28%) and health & beauty (28%). 

This year, more than two-thirds (68%) of shoppers say they will be making a Black Friday purchase for themselves, driven by a higher number of men (74%) looking to treat themselves to a bargain. Women are more likely to be buying for their family (65%) than themselves (62%). 

Men are forecast to spend more money this Black Friday with spend per person due to reach £309, an increase of 17% compared to last year and 43% higher than women. More than half of men (58%) are looking to pick up a tech or electronic item, with fashion (40%) and Christmas stocking fillers (23%) the next most popular items. As for female shoppers, they’re expected to spend £216 per person, up 10%. Tech purchases (39%) also top women’s priorities just pipping fashion and health & beauty (36% for both) with Christmas sticking fillers (33%) following. 

PWC’s research is based on a nationally representative survey of 2,000 adults conducted earlier this month and there’s clearly some good news for the fashion and beauty sector in there as both of those categories look like key priorities.

New data from order fulfilment software specialist Mintsoft based on a variety of sources, including data from e-commerce companies, is also upbeat about sales rises for fashion and beauty.

It said online fashion and cosmetic retailers are expected to see “sharp growth this Black Friday, with UK shoppers forecast to spend £10.3 billion — nearly 20% more than last year”. Admittedly, that £10.3 billion figure is vastly different from PWC’s £6.4 billion but the different criteria researchers use, the different periods covered and so on can count for that.

Overall, Mintsoft’s figures show online orders could jump by 18.6%, with fulfilment teams and couriers bracing for millions of deliveries.

The company said consumers placed more than 2.5 million online orders during last year’s Black Friday period, an increase of 675,804 compared to 2023. Cyber Monday was the busiest day last Black Friday season, with around 450,000 customer orders dispatched.

Mintsoft added that 46% of Britons will be looking to buy clothing with another 30% searching for accessories, while 30% will be after cosmetics.

Finally, Centric Market Intelligence, which tracks more than 1,000 e-commerce sites and millions of live products, is also predicting a strong event for fashion and beauty, although not all categories will be winners.

It said it’s seeing “designer handbag fatigue” with searches down year on year for major luxury bags, although interest in the Hermès Birkin has “climbed more than 100%, underscoring its investment level status”.

The top sold-out categories are in cosmetics and beauty, as well as accessories, including bags (despite the designer bag fatigue) and luggage. But demand for smaller items as gifts is holding up too. Searches for card holders are up 39%, and scarf searches have risen for Hermès with a 65% increase, Burberry with a 45% increase and Dior with a 25% increase. 

Eyewear is also proving to be “a critical category”, as Centric has noted Cartier and Gucci eyewear up 31% and 26% in search interest, “confirming eyewear’s status as a growing holiday and luxury entry point”.