UK retail sales very weak in November says CBI, Budget jitters blamed

The UK’s Autumn Budget is finally happening on 26 November but the lead up to it feels like it’s gone on forever. And that has been part of the problem for recent UK retail sales as consumer jitters over what the Budget might contain have kept their purses clamped shut and have also spooked business.

The most up-to-date of all the monthly retail reports is the CBI’s (it reports on the month’s sales while the month is still happening) and this week it said that “sentiment among retailers fell at the sharpest rate in 17 years” during November as retail sales fell.

Retail sales volumes fell “at a fast pace”, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023, the CBI said. And retailers expect demand to remain subdued heading into December, with sales set to fall again, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.

It added that with demand still weak and uncertainty mounting ahead of the Budget, retailers plan to pull back on both investment and hiring. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years. In the near-term, firms also expect to trim headcount at a slightly faster pace next month.

So before we get to the numbers in the report, it’s worth pointing out that the CBI report doesn’t include actual sales figures nor the percentages by which they went up or down. Instead it’s focused on the ‘weighted balance’ of retailers that say their sales rose or fell. The size of the actual rise or fall isn’t taken into account.

With that in mind, the report said retail sales volumes fell with a weighted balance of -32%, wider than -27% in October, but are expected to fall again  (-24%).

By seasonal standards, November’s retail sales were judged to be “poor” (-25%), to a somewhat greater extent than in October (-15%). December’s sales “are set to disappoint seasonal norms” to a comparable degree (-18%).

That said, online retail sales volumes grew in the year to November at a moderate pace and for the second month in a row (+13% from +4% in October). Retailers expect online sales to surge in December (+50%), marking the strongest expectation since May 2021.

But worryingly, the report said sentiment among retailers “worsened in November to the greatest extent in 17 years, with firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter” (-35% from -10% in August).

That business pessimism means retailers expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months. The -42% figure may be the same as reported in August, but investment intentions remained poor by historical standards (long-run average of -3%).

Also of concern is that retail employment declined again in the year to November (-19% from -14% in August). And as mentioned, headcount is expected to fall at a marginally quicker pace next month (-23%). Given that this is meant to be retail’s busiest time when many stores take on extra staff, that’s quite shocking.