UK’s online festive sales expected to hit more records says Adobe

Here are some numbers worth unwrapping before Christmas. UK holiday online spending is set to hit a record £26.9 billion from now until December 31, up 4.2% compared to a year ago! For good measure, that makes it a third successive year of positive year-on-year growth in online spending over the holiday period.  

All that’s according to Adobe Analytics data which has a pretty good handle on what’s happening out there as it analyses hundreds of billions visits to of UK online retail sites and tracks 100 million SKUs in 18 product categories.

Further good news is that despite consumers trading down to cheaper goods throughout 2025, they’re expected to trade up to more expensive items during the festive season “as they treat themselves and buy gifts for others”.

The share of goods sold for the most expensive items is expected to increase 15% in November and December compared to year-to-date averages (January-September). Categories that will see the biggest increases in their revenue share of higher-priced goods include Personal Care Products (+41%) and Sporting Goods (+36%).

So how do the wider figures break down?  To begin with, unsurprisingly, Black Friday is set to be the biggest spending day of the year at £1.19 billion, up 6.6% on a year ago, kicking off a bumper Cyber Weekend.

Online spending during Cyber Weekend (Black Friday to Cyber Monday) is projected to grow 4.4% year-on-year to £3.8 billion, capturing 14.2% of the season’s total revenue.

Cyber Monday is expected to be the second highest with a £963.6 million expected spend (up 4.1%) followed by Sunday, with £895.8 million spent (up 2.6%).

Boxing Day is also forecast to cross the half-a-billion-pound threshold (£510 million), up 4.6%. 

Seasonal discounts across Black Friday and the Cyber Weekend are expected to be comparable to 2024 levels while discounts will be at their deepest for most items over Cyber Weekend.

However, personal care products will be 18% cheaper on Black Friday when apparel will also be 17% cheaper. Boxing Day (26 December) will be time to buy sporting goods when they’re 15% cheaper. 

Even with deep discounts, the report noted that shoppers will up their usage of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) to spread the cost of Cyber Weekend and festive spending.

Total online BNPL spend during the 2025 season (1 November- 31 December) is forecast at £3.8 billion, up 5.4% on last year. Black Friday is forecast to see £132 million spent using BNPL, up 12.7%, and  Cyber Monday is forecast to be the largest day ever for UK BNPL with shoppers spending £159.3 million, up 4.2% on a year ago.

And artificial intelligence-assisted traffic (ChatGPT or Google Gemini) to retail sites has skyrocketed throughout 2025, with momentum building into the festive season as consumers increasingly turn to the services for gift inspiration, product recommendations and comparisons, price comparisons and more.

In September, referrals to retail sites from GenAI sources were up 730% compared with September 2024; in November and December, referrals from GenAI sources are projected to continue rising, with expected growth of 410%, compared to year ago; traffic is expected to spike during major shopping days, peaking on Cyber Monday; and Black Friday and Boxing Day are forecast to increase traffic share by 310% and 750% compared with the same days last year.  

However, mobile remains the favoured device for online shopping, and its dominance is growing  with the 2025 season expected to set a new record for amount spent and share of spend. Some £15.3 billion will be spent via mobile devices in November and December, up 5.5% on last year’s £14.5 billion. 

Meanwhile, mobile revenue share during the festive season is forecast to be 56.7% of total online spending, edging up from 56% last year.